2024 presents many challenges for investors with it being a Presidential and Congressional election year in the US. As we start a new year the last inflation figure was 3.4% so conditions are starting to normalize but the Federal Reserve is aiming for 2%. We note that despite the normalization post pandemic of global supply chains container traffic flow in the Red Sea is being disrupted which could be a factor putting upward pressure on inflation. With interest rates widely expected to be cut this year by as much as 1% or more there is renewed excitement about opportunities in fixed income but also hope that a new bull market for equities will include smaller capitalized businesses that investors largely avoided last year. as the year progresses there will be more predictions of how a win by former President Trump might impact the US economy in 2025; a key question being whether tariffs on imports from Europe and China will be hiked and how that affects businesses in addition to any changes in regulation and the tax code. Key points about economic change in the US include the impact of AI and automation as well as the slow journey of decarbonization of the economy; these are likely to remain important themes no matter what the outcome of the November elections.

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